Madam President


Hillary Clinton, first female President

Hillary Clinton, first female President

 

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Today, I declare that the next president of the United States is unequivocally Hillary Clinton, the first female to be elected to this post since the creation of the Republic. Although the statement sounds more like a fait accompli, it is however a prediction of the outcome in the general elections.

Who the hell am I to make such bold prediction? There is no need to get all upset, we’ll get to that in a minute. Later in this article, I will provide rationale for my prediction but most importantly I will provide irrefutable proof that all my predictions during the 2016 primaries have been correct. You may huff and puff – if that makes you feel better – but my aforementioned prediction remains.

If you are a Democrat, I can imagine how excited you must be right now; in fact, it has most likely been your prayer and hope that Hillary Clinton wins the general elections. Rejoice, your prayers have been answered.

If you are a Republican (with no concern for the country’s wellbeing), you probably quip, dismiss my prediction, huff and puff or worst curse me, for you would naturally want Trump to become the next president. I hate to rain in your parade, it’s not going to happen. My predictions are sealed. But if it is of any consolation, I encourage you to read why you should not vote for Trump in November.

Note: my prediction in this article is unrelated to my plea for you to vote against Trump; whether you do or not does not change my prediction but it would be the noble thing to do.

Throughout the 2016 presidential election cycle, I have provided my audience a peek into the future of the race for both the Democratic and the Republican Partys. In my analysis, I filtered through the noise of partisanship, party affiliation and looked beyond the daily chatters in the media, the verbal ping pong attacks and counter-attacks, accusations and counter-accusations of both partys and candidates in order to arrive at the most plausible conclusion of an outcome.

With a “psychological model” of both campaigns and the electorate I have developed – I completely bypass the electoral map used by most experts to predict the outcome of presidential elections – I was able to arrive at the conclusion that Mrs. Clinton is unequivocally the next president of the United States.

I will discuss below in further details the factors I used in my model to arrive at said conclusion and made such bold prediction.

How did we get here?
The whole world now knows the duel for the seat of the presidency being vacated by the Obama administration in January 2017 is between the Republican nominee Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton. However, if you’ve been following me (on twitter: @mducheiney) and are subscribed to my blog, you would have been well ahead of the curve; on February 23, 2016, I published the following excerpt in the article The Republican Nominee For 2016 Is… where I declared Trump as the inevitable GOP Nominee: “Get ready for a showdown between Donald Trump representing the Republican Party and Hillary Clinton representing the Democrat Party. It is a duel you would not want to miss… If the Republican establishment doesn’t interfere with the normal process of the elections, the faceoff will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Welcome to Las Vegas where dreams can indeed come true.” You could have even bragged to your friends that you are psychic, a power you would have acquired reading this blog.

In all fairness, the duel (between Clinton and Trump) is simply window dressing, entertainment, politics, backroom deals, compromises, treacheries, etc. What the world actually awaits is to find out which one of the two candidates will occupy the Oval Office. Nothing else matters; the theater is for money making purpose. Both here and abroad, there is a high level of anxiety over the prospect of a president Donald Trump; rightfully so! During the primaries, Mr. Trump self-promoted as someone who is capable of providing solutions to economic ills (eliminate national debt, reduce deficit, incentivize companies to re-patriate, reduce unemployment) and eradicating terrorism from the world by “going tough after ISIS”. In addition, Donald promised his supporters – who have been yearning for a candidate like Trump – he will deport all illegal immigrants, build a TALL wall between US and Mexico to prevent further influx of illegal immigrants, ban Muslims from the country to prevent local jihad. Here is in essence how I summed up in a previous article Trump’s plan to move the country forward:

… as of date, Trump’s solutions to problems are a tally of slogans: “I will take care of, I will make changes, I will be tough (with China), I will make the economy great, I will bring jobs back, I will sit down with Putin, I will listen Kim Jong Un, I will repeal Obamacare, I will ban Muslims from US, I will deport all Mexicans, I will Make America great again”; to top it all up, Mr. Trump constantly insults anyone and everyone who doesn’t agree with him, who doesn’t support him.

The World Fears Instability in the United States
Most Heads of States watch the US presidential elections very closely and assess any possibility Donald Trump could become the next president of the United States so they can plan in advance, well in advance on how to deal with an unstable individual who has access to the nuclear code with the nuclear button at his fingertip. That is indeed very scary!

Although I don’t have a crystal ball, I will attempt below to provide rationale which could put your mind to ease that Donald Trump will not be anywhere near the Oval Office in January 2017; at the end of my analysis, you will know for sure which one of the two candidates will succeed Obama to the Oval Office. As mentioned earlier, my prediction in regards to the outcome of the presidential elections is set in stone: Hillary Clinton is the next president.

I know that not because I am psychic but because:

A.-  I’ve earned bragging rights
During the 2016 elections cycle, I made five major predictions all of which turned out correct 1) Hillary for President: I predicted two years in advance that Hillary will bid for the seat of the presidency 2) Joe Bidden Out: I predicted a month in advance that Joe Bidden will not run for president 3) Hillary DNC Nominee: I predicted six months in advance that Hillary will become the Democratic nominee no matter what 4) Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz Out: I predicted three & four months respectively in advance that  both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz cannot be president in 2016 5) Trump GOP Nominee: I predicted three months in advance that Donald Trump will become the GOP nominee

I encourage you to read part one which provides elaborate details of my past predictions.

 

B.- Personal feeling aside, Mrs. Clinton’s qualifications are unmatched
Without rehashing what I already wrote about her in previous articles, Mrs. Clinton is the most qualified candidate in modern time who has bid for the seat of the presidency. Here is how I summed it up in one of the articles: “to hate, do dislike, to resent and even to find her despicable does not in any way affect her qualifications. Mrs. Clinton is probably the only presidential candidate in modern time with such a long list of credentials; she is the most qualified candidate who has vied for the Oval Office in a long time.

On the international stage, she is recognized across the world for her work as Secretary of State; she’s met with virtually most Heads of State, a big plus for any president who has already established rapport with heads of state across the world; on the national stage, Mrs. Clinton is no stranger to policies which have impacted various sectors of the population.

But most importantly, Mrs. Clinton is level headed. Anyone who claims to love the country, anyone who claims to be patriotic cannot justify flipping the country by handing it to a very unsettling individual

 

C.- Donald Trump’s plan for the country is a list of slogans and talking points
If you go to donadjtrump.com where the GOP nominee provides a glimpse of “his genius”, you’d be blown away by the simplicity of the language used for complex issues such as Healthcare, Trade and Immigration reforms. Simplicity is a good tool to use to connect with the average constituents; so, the problem is not in the simplicity of the language but rather in the lack of serious thoughts put into solving those issues.

Mr. Trump seems to think of the presidency as a role which can be scripted, much like The Apprentice. There is not much to it; that’s most likely the rationale for not having detailed plans for policies on issues which have plagued the country for decades.

For instance, in the “COMPELLING MEXICO TO PAY FOR THE WALL” policy draft (I urge you to read it for yourself), Mr. Trump engages in a monologue scenario in which he also speaks for and reacts on behalf of the other party (in this case Mexico): on Day 1, Mr. Trump suggests promulgating rules to prevent wire transfer of money to Mexico unless the sender can provide proof of permanent residency; on Day 2, Mexico will protest according to Trump’s calculation (as detailed in the aforementioned document made available by the Trump’s campaign) and on Day 3, “tell Mexico… to contribute the funds needed to the United States to pay for the wall” or else.

Although you may not be as much a genius as Trump, – you don’t have to be; his language is simple enough for anyone to understand – simple everyday common sense is sufficient to help concluding that Mr. Trump’s policy proposal vis-à-vis Mexico is outrageously ridiculous at best, completely childish and substance free.

Ironically, the aforementioned example (Compelling Mexico To Pay For The Wall) is considered so compelling (no pun intended) and so powerful by the Trump’s campaign that it is used as a template for all policy proposals on all issues. There is no need to rush back to school for your PhD in order to accurately conclude that Trump (and all GOP leaders who have aligned behind him) must see the presidency as a joke and is thus not worth any serious effort. Mr. Trump’s calculation is based almost exclusively on the facts that during the primaries his odds (to beat the others) had remained high to warrant him the nomination of the Republican Party. Interestingly, it is also the odds to become the next president which will be the major hindrances preventing him from reaching the White House; his bet on the odds at this point is a misplaced “strategy”.

 

D.- Mrs. Clinton’s plan is very detailed
Contrary to her GOP challenger, Mrs. Clinton makes available to the constituents on her campaign’ site hillaryclinton.com her plans to move the country forward. This is not to say her policies are great (although they may be) or her plan would work or her ideas are better but it is important to bring attention to the fact that she has at least considered the post of the presidency serious enough to have set time aside to discuss policies with experts and make them available to the public and explain how she would go about tackling the problems and the issues confronted by the country.

That is indeed what one would expect from any individual who a) is serious about the post of the presidency b) is genuinely interested in solving the pressing social and economic issues in the country.

You wouldn’t hire someone who just show up for interview and tell you to “just trust me, I am able to drive sales up by 150%” without any proof or background of having done similar job and achieved comparable results, would you?

Mrs. Clinton provides detailed information on how she intends to fulfill her duty as president; this is not to say she will be able to, but what she provides is better than what her opponent offers, a list of “just trust me, I will do this, that and the other” without any plan on how he would manage to do what he promises.

He would become quite obvious to the electorate in the next few weeks and months before the November elections that they cannot rely on promises made by someone who has a long track record of not keeping promises, someone who has defied the idea of speaking the truth and considers using lies as literary proses. When factcheck.org came into existence, it was “to monitor the factual accuracy of what is said by major U.S. political players in the form of TV ads, debates, speeches, interviews, and news releases”. But Donald Trump candidacy renders factcheck.org completely useless; it is estimated that 95% of what Donald Trump says are lies, distortions, blatant lies, falsehoods and the like, there is nothing to factcheck?

 

E.- Mrs. Clinton is a great debater
One would expect someone who has had decades of experience in politics to be knowledgeable in most (if not all) aspects of politics, social & economic issues as well as international politics. Well, Mrs. Clinton proves she is not just a lovely flower. Hillary has become immersed in politics at a very young age. Over the years, she has refined her debate strategy by observing others, revising how she performed in previous debates on various issues. If one watches how Mrs. Clinton answers any question thrown at her, she never misses a beat. Not only is she well prepared to provide answer to any question but she is also quick on her feet to frame her answers to match her audience’s expectation; that is also probably her Achilles’ heels.

We had a preview of her debate style and strategy during the primaries while on stage with her challenger Senator Bernie Sanders. Although Sanders is by far more appealing and more politically versed than Donald Trump, Mrs. Clinton always managed to “box the Senator into her corner” on the debate stage.

She would however find herself on the defensive whenever the issue of “the private email server she used as Secretary of State” is brought up. On this aspect, I found both her and her campaign team very incompetent; it was always expected for this topic to come up over and over and over again. It’s understandable that she has to carefully word her answers regarding this matter but it’s unacceptable she is not able to articulate better answer to the question or inquiry. It is shamefully similar to Jeb Bush’ struggle to answer question about his brother’s Iraq war debacle.

As that issue will continue to dog her until FBI submits a “final verdict” on the matter, her opponent could and probably would use it as a wedge issue to distract from other more pressing issues facing the country. If his past performance is any guide, Donald Trump sucks at debate; he is extremely incoherent, displays complete lack of knowledge on most issues. Even on the economy which he has touted as his greatest strength and which he used as ace card to knock all his opponents out of the race during the primaries, Trump shows very little understanding on the complexity of the economics of a country. However, his loyalist supporters believe his personal success is proof he knows what he’s doing (Read How Much Would President Cost for a good understanding of his tax policy proposal).

Unless the Clinton’s camp has done its homework and is ready to shred in pieces with elaborate details how this perception of Trump’s success is nothing but smoke screen, Trump will be able to land serious blows in a debate. On a national stage, that could translate into a knockout punch.

 

F.- Mrs. Clinton has the best team of surrogates
Despite the “private use of email server” sword of Damocles and campaign mistakes made during the primaries, both of which should have drowned her campaign, Mrs. Clinton managed to clinch the Democratic nomination. And that was the hard part!

In the history of presidential campaigns, this is the first time a candidate vying for the Oval Office has what will undoubtedly be referred to in the annals of history as the “A-Team of Surrogates”.  And she desperately needs that.

1.- For starter, Hillary is closely related to the 42nd president Bill Clinton – she is married to him – who is by any measure the most articulate individual capable of “driving a point home” for any audience. In fact, in the 2012 re-election campaign of Barack Obama, Bill Clinton was very instrumental in Obama’s re-election; Bill acquired the nickname of “Explainer In Chief” for being able to do a better job explaining how Obama needs a second term to finish the work he has started in order to turn the economy around, and he has to a certain extent. To have Bill in your corner as a surrogate is a very big deal; Hillary not only has Bill but he is “completely in”, body and soul; besides, Bill is compelled to propel his wife to the highest office as she has done for him in the past. If elected, it would be doubly historic; Hillary will be the first female president, and it will be the first time in the history of the Republic that a former president’s spouse would have also been elected to the Oval Office.

2.- Second, Hillary has Barack Obama, the current president in her corner, completely in, just like Bill. Mr. Obama’s signature accomplishments – such as Obamacare, Immigration Policy, LGBT Rights and many others – hinge a great deal on a Democrat occupying the Oval Office. In addition, when Mrs. Clinton conceded the nomination to Obama in 2008, both her and her husband campaigned relentlessly on his behalf to secure the presidency. It is now Mr. Obama’s turn to return the favor.

Barack Obama, as a surrogate, is also a very big deal. He earned the nickname Campaigner In Chief for being probably the best there’s ever been in the history of presidential campaigns. In reality, Mr. Obama is much better at explaining others than drumming his own beat; he has already given us a preview of how effective he can be in the campaign trail on behalf of Hillary. Besides, because he has the “First Office” in the land, he is also best positioned to compete with Mr. Trump’s hijack of the Media. In addition, Mr. Obama’s credibility is much, much higher than Trump’s; the president is also more admired for his demeanor than Trump’s insulting behavior. But most importantly, Mr. Obama is also campaigning hard to preserve the legacy of his accomplishments.

3.- Third, Hillary is certain to have Joe Biden on her corner. Despite being recognized as “Blooper In Chief”, Mr. Biden can easily captivate any audience. He doesn’t raise his voice, he doesn’t yell slogans and talking points but he completely commands attention when he speaks. Joe is funny and is also very good at driving a point home even with examples created for the audience on the fly. But what sets Joe apart from the other surrogates is his trusted nature; everyone almost always expects Joe to say something funny or “blooperish” but most trust the story he tells. He is a very effective speaker to have as a surrogate during a campaign.

4.- Fourth, Hillary has Elizabeth Warren as a surrogate. Elizabeth is one of the most admired politicians of our time; however, she is not popular in the political circle of Washington and the financial center of Wall Street because of her stand against corruption and unfair business practices which have hurt regular people. She was responsible to tighten the Consumer Protection Agency which, before Warren, used to “rubber stamp” whatever policy was beneficial to the financial institutions however detrimental those guidelines and policies were to The People. Mrs. Warren changed all that. She is very popular with The People. In fact, despite having repeatedly denied a bid for the office of the presidency, many initiatives were put in place to nudge her towards changing her mind; she never did obviously.

Because Mrs. Warren’s ideals align mostly with Sanders’, she abstained from endorsing Hillary Clinton (despite pressure from her colleagues to do so) during the primaries for as long as Senator Sanders had decided to continue his campaign for the nomination of the Party. Though her decision has “ired” Clinton and her campaign, Mrs. Warren was not phased. But when she finally endorsed Mrs. Clinton on June 9, Hillary acquired one of the most effective politicians in Washington who is also very popular with Bernie’s supporters. In fact, more than 70% of Bernie’s supporters would like her as Hillary’s running mate.

Irrespective of whether she is picked or not, – it is very doubtful Hillary would want to be overshadowed by Elizabeth’s popularity – Mrs. Warren is the best surrogate to take on Donald Trump. She can also be as much of a bully as Donald Trump although smarter, more respected and trusted. She is in the best position to make a case for Hillary than any of the other surrogates. Elizabeth is by all measure the one to clear the path for Hillary’s victory in November

5.- Fifth, Hillary has in her corner her previous challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders. In spite of what wound down to be one of the most bitter primaries in the Democratic Party for a long time, Senator Sanders finally conceded – after the outcome of the primaries in California on June 7 (Hillary 55.8% vs Bernie43.2%)- that his path to the nomination is now a dream of the past. Reluctantly, grudgingly but eventually Bernie will rally his troops behind Hillary in order to defeat Donald Trump in the general elections; in fact, in the past few weeks following the California primary results (and even before that), Bernie’s principal message has been to defeat the GOP nominee in November. Although Bernie could be a powerful ally to achieve the objective of defeating Trump in the general elections, it remains to be seen how committed he is to help with the objective. If he proves to be as committed as Mrs. Clinton was to Obama in 2008, he will bring with him an energized group which will look under every rock for an opportunity to knock out Donald Trump. Both he and Elizabeth Warren are able to warrant a victory for Hillary in November irrespective of the GOP strategy.

6.- Trump’ Surrogates Suck; I have yet to come across any Trump’s surrogates who would bet his/her life on Donald Trump’s rational mind. Every Trump’s surrogate is instructed one simple strategy: to avoid talking about Trump at all cost and to frame all answers by talking about Hillary’s private email server issues and other areas she may be vulnerable. It is impossible to find any INTELLIGENT individual in the Republican camp who can make a rational argument for Trump over Hillary. And it is not just about Trump’s temperament; Donald has absolutely no clue how the running of a country differs from running a private business and he seems completely impervious to accepting help or advice from those who have been on the bloc. His campaign staff is constantly humiliated and consistently irritated by Trump’s behavior; and his surrogates, most of whom vie for a post in Trump’s administration, are the most unpatriotic bunch; they don’t believe a second Trump is fit for the presidency but they are willing to gamble the future of the Republic to satisfy their selfish pride.

It is a very difficult, if not impossible, hand to beat irrespective of what the electoral map may convey and unless some major, unforeseen, exploding revelations emerge to rock the Hillary’s campaign before the November elections. Otherwise, as previously stated (a few times), Hillary Clinton is undoubtedly the next president of the United Sates.

Is Trump Possible At All?
With such a powerful list of celebrity surrogates, Hillary’s victory is assured. That does not in any way remove the possibility of a Trump presidency, does it?

There are two scenarios under which a Trump’s presidency is still possible:

1) a bombshell in regards to Hillary’s private use of an email server when she was Secretary of State in Obama’s first term presidency. We know pretty much all there is to know about that topic; however, if some new, exploding revelations were to be announced on the heel of the vote in November, the dynamic may suddenly shift to Trump’s favor. Although such scenario is unlikely, even rumors of such may jeopardize Mrs. Clinton’s assured path to the Oval Office

2) Trump manages to remake his image as a trusting individual who is not only capable of making rational decisions but is also able to work with all parties even those who would disagree with him. Not an easy feat for someone who insults everyone he disagrees with. Besides, he would have to re-assure the Hispanics, the Muslims he is a very different person; not an easy feat for someone who has only spoken lies and falsehoods throughout the whole primaries and beyond and insulted those two groups of constituents.

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Email me at: mducheiney@gmail.com
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