Tell me which nominee you want to become the next president of the United States, send a donation of $25 (or more) to cover the cost of a shiny crystal ball, a self-addressed and stamped envelope, forward the last four-digit of your social security, your date of birth, your bank account number and the size of your household. Wait 6-8 weeks for an answer.
Joking aside, I may be the only one who has the correct answer. Alright! Alright! I’ve earned the rights to brag. In a sea of uncertainties during this election cycle, when most political “experts copped out” of predicting so they don’t look bad, I was confident enough to make several predictions (you can read about them below), all of which are correct. I have indeed earned the rights to brag.
Before I reveal the answer, let me say this is not a guess work. In the general elections, there will be just two candidates, one you already know about will be Donald Trump for the Republican Party and the other – I already know about – will be Hillary Clinton for the Democrat’s. At this point, virtually anyone can make a prediction about the outcome of the general election with 50% accuracy; however, the prediction will most likely slant on party affiliation. In other words, most (if not all) Democrats would predict Hillary Clinton will be the next president; most Republicans would predict Donald Trump will be the next president. So, is it even worth the effort predicting who the next occupant of the Oval Office will be?
Contrary to the two aforementioned scenarios – where Republicans see Trump in the Oval Office while Democrats see Mrs. Clinton – my predictions are usually very accurate 1) I don’t make predictions based on a crystal ball or party affiliation 2) most of my predictions are always correct; this election cycle, I have a 100% accuracy score for my predictions. So, before I ruin it for everyone and declare the next occupant of the Oval Office, let me take you through my predictions spree (did I mention 100% accuracy?).
Prediction 1 – I correctly predicted two years in advance that Hillary Clinton will run for president.
After Hillary Clinton resigned from the post of Secretary of State as Obama began his second term Presidency, pundits from all walks of life began to speculate on what she was going to do next. Mrs. Clinton joined her husband charitable organization the Clinton’s Foundation to help with administration and fundraising. She declined in many occasions to say she was considering a run for the Oval Office; in fact, she went out of her way to propose she’s not sure she wanted to go back to politics. In addition, Fox Opinion (referred to by most as Fox News) was running endless series on the Benghazi tragedy, probably a strategy to discourage Mrs. Clinton from considering a bid for the presidency. And she did indeed move away from the idea, however temporary her decision was; she flirted with the idea of applying for the post of president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which became vacant in May 2011. One would say that Mrs. Clinton was undecided about what she’d like to do next but there was one analyst who could see beyond Mrs. Clinton’s indecision and declared unequivocally that Mrs. Clinton will run for the presidency of the United States. On February 19, 2014 (yes, 2014), I wrote a column titled Hillary Is Running For President; read it here. A few months later, on May 14, 2014, I wrote another column – Bill Clinton Inadvertent Announcement: Hillary is Running – which re-emphasized my belief that Mrs. Clinton would indeed bid for the seat of the presidency. And on June 13, 2015 over a year after I predicted she would run, Mrs. Clinton officially announced her intention to bid for the office of the presidency.
Of course, anybody can get lucky, right? My predictions are never based on luck or guess. It is a systematic analysis of various events which provides me the necessary data to arrive at accurate conclusions. As I’ve mentioned in many occasions, because I am not emotionally vested, it’s much easiest for me to be more objective than most (analysts).
Prediction 2 – I correctly predicted one month in advance that Joe Biden will not seek the office of the presidency.
And there was Joe Biden. In modern time, it is widely expected that the Vice President of the current administration would make a run for the Oval Office at the end of the president’s second term. For at least half century that has been the norm with one exception, Dick Cheney, Vice President under the George W. Bush’s administration. So, it would not be any surprise that Joe Biden, Vice President under Obama who is approaching the end of the second term, would seek the office of the presidency. For many months, there were enough speculations about whether Joe Biden would run to fill a small library; although his office was mum about his intention, Joe had dropped “crumbs” along the way which pointed towards his intention (to bid for the presidency).
During the Obama’s second term inauguration, Joe Biden’s stunt prompted many to believe it was a signal of his intention to run. Truth be told, Mr. Biden had every reason to seek the office of the presidency. He has the wisdom, plenty of political experience; he has above all a very likable personality. In addition, in the weeks leading to an announcement, many Republican figures including Dick Cheney made encouraging statements for Joe to bid for the presidency. Needless to emphasize the difficulty of sifting through all the noise and speculations in order to figure out correctly what Mr. Biden’s announcement would be! But I did; on September 9, 2015, I posted a column titled “Republican Party Picks Joe Biden For President” in which I explained in great details why Joe Biden would not run for president despite the likelihood that he would win the presidency under the current climate of the presidential elections. As soon as I posted the article, I got a few backlashes from Biden’s fans and supporters.
Backlashes seem to have become part of a general trend, usually from the fans and/or supporters (or opponents) of an idea, a candidate or a party. Such reactions are understandable; most people look for others who think alike, for people who share their opinions, their sentiment, their belief. They try to stay away from anyone who does not see things the same way they do; they are very inclined to think bad about that individual, even to wish the individual ill. Lucky me, I do not take any of that into consideration in my analysis of any situation. My objective is to be objective.
On October 21, 2015, less than a month following my predictions, Joe Biden made the painful announcement he would not seek the office of the presidency. One can draw whichever conclusion about the announcement, there is plenty of reasons to. In fact, Joe demurred later in an interview accorded to ABC about his decision not to bid for the presidency.
Prediction 3 – I correctly predicted six months in advance that Hillary Clinton will become the nominee of the Democratic Party
The aspirants to the Oval Office on both Partys – Democrat and Republican – had barely finished to express their desire to become the next president of the United States, I was getting ready to make announcement of my own. No, not that! However, in addition to data already available about the candidates, I needed to find out how each one fared on the debate stage. Seventeen candidates, three debates (the first three Republican debates) did not provide sufficient info for me to make a prediction in regards to the candidate most likely to become the nominee for the Republican Party.
However, after only one debate on the Democrat side held on Oct 13, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada, I was fairly confident I had collected enough information to predict the nominee for the Party. On November 4, 2015, ten days before the Democrat Party second debate on November 14, 2015 in Iowa, I published an article titled “2016 Election Update – Democrat Nominee Is…” in which I revealed that Mrs. Clinton is unequivocally the nominee for the Democratic Party.
If you spend a little bit of time reading my predictions, you should notice something interesting in the way I make the predictions; I do not leave a door for me to escape in the event I am wrong. It’s because I do not expect to be wrong; as I mentioned in several occasions, I rely a great deal on the data I have, the analysis I make and I shut out all external noise (news, commentaries, pundits’ analysis, etc. most of which are peppered with bias for one party or the other) in order to arrive at a conclusion which is more or less unbiased. This is not to imply you would agree with my conclusion; in fact, I have yet to find anyone who has agreed with my conclusions initially despite the fact I have been 100% correct thus far. The reason is simple, people who look at my predictions have preferences; if my prediction does not support such preferences, they automatically reject it. My objective is NOT to support one’s feeling or strengthened one’s bias but to simply provide you with the information.
Needless to point out that the Sanders’ fans and supporters are enflamed with my prediction regarding the Democratic nominee! And if you guess because they prefer Sanders, well, you are a psychic. Interestingly, I too would prefer Sanders but the purpose of my analysis is NOT to support my feeling or bias. So, one can rest assured my bias is not included in my analysis. As of this writing, Mrs. Clinton only needs 92 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. It’s easy (for everyone) to see now that she will be the nominee.
Prediction 4 – I correctly predicted three months in advance that both Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio cannot become president in the 2016 elections cycle
This is where I almost lost faith in my analysis, not because I was wrong but because I was half wrong. Yes, you read correctly; I was partially correctly. This is also the prediction which almost got me stoned (to death) by supporters of the candidates which were negatively impacted by my predictions. On December 25, 2015 (yes, last year), Christmas day, as a gift to all those who aspired to the Oval Office and those who were willing to support them with their money, their effort, their knowledge and their time, I published an article “Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio Are Barred From The White House” which could have ruined their Christmas celebration; thankfully, neither Cruz and Rubio nor their supporters gave much credence to my predictions! Except that on March 15, 2016 (three months following my predictions) after losing his own state of Florida, Marco dropped out of the race and on May 3, 2016 (four months following my predictions) after losing the Indiana primary, a state previously seen to favor him, Ted dropped out of the race.
Although my predictions about Ted and Marco were spot on, I incorrectly assumed in an article published a week earlier on December 18, 2015, “Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio Are Not Eligible To Be President” that Jeb & Chris could have benefitted from the two Senators’ misfortune. Unfortunately however, both Jeb & Chris dropped out of the race before the Senators exited.
Needless to point out the vitriolic comments I received from supporters of both Marco and Ted! The nicest comments regarding my predictions on Ted and Marco tagged me as stupid. I was hurt. As I mentioned many, many times – and I also pointed it out in the aforementioned articles – my objective is not to write to please one group or the other, one candidate or another. You are free to continue to believe (or to hope) that my predictions are wrong; however, your belief, your support (or non-support) are not factors that I consider in my analysis. The purpose of tallying my predictions here is to provide you a gauge so you can weigh the accuracy of my past predictions and future ones.
Prediction 5 – I correctly predicted three months in advance that Donald Trump will become the nominee of the Republican Party
Imagine for a moment that every time you fall asleep you have nightmares (or daymares); as if that’s not bad enough, someone makes it his business to wait for you by the bedside to remind you you’re going to have nightmares. How nightmarish is that! On February 28, 2016, a few days before Super Tuesday, I published an article “The Republican Nominee For 2016 Is…” which stated unequivocally that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. If you read the article, you should notice that I was not merely guessing. But what made it difficult then for most Republicans to accept is a number of factors among which are a) the establishment favored Rubio overwhelmingly b) Ben Carson was still seen by the GOP as a possible alternative c) Ted Cruz was making progress (more progress than Rubio in the delegates count) d) John Kasich, although a long shot for the nomination could be considered in the case of a contested convention.
But most importantly, no one would take my prediction seriously because no GOP leader would want to have to deal with Trump nominee. In fact, Chairman Reince Priebus made the round on TV denouncing Trump’s as unfit to become Commander-in-chief. So, my prediction was considered a joke, a distraction at best. On May 3, 2016 however (three months following my prediction), after a decisive win of the Indiana primaries, it became clear to the rest of the country that Donald Trump will be the nominee. Although there is no candidate to challenge him, the GOP Elites continue to refer to Trump as the presumptive nominee as if something could change
As always, when I make prediction, it’s never to please; I am sure some will take comfort if the prediction is favorable, others would ignore it at best or curse me. Here is the reason most experts failed to accurately predict Donald Trump’s nomination “The ‘experts’ have lived inside their ‘expertise box’ for so long they failed to realize a lot has happened outside that box”. That was indeed true in the case of the Trump’s phenomenon but there was something else, the powerbrokers, the GOP elites, the pundits, the analysts didn’t want Trump to represent the Republican Party.
As in all my predictions, I was certain of both the GOP and the DNC outcomes, I concluded the article as follows “Get ready for a showdown between Donald Trump representing the Republican Party and Hillary Clinton representing the Democrat Party. It is a duel you would not want to miss.”
Now that you know, watch this column for the second part in which I will reveal which of the two most unliked candidates will occupy the Oval Office in January 2017.