Can Donald Trump Win 2020?

Although Trump’ supporters are salivating over his re-election and there is a lot of noise on the Democrat’ side. The reality would most likely be different:

  • Donald Trump will certainly lose the popular vote again, by a much larger margin than 3 million
  • if you look at the States above which gave him the Electoral College victory over Hillary (the most hated politician in the nation), I am willing to bet anyone (figure of speech, I don’t gamble) who thinks Donald Trump can win all those states again. He might even lose Texas. Trump wins the election by a total of 77 electoral college votes over Hillary. If you add the States above (minus Texas), there are 141 electoral college at play, most of which Trump will not be able to reclaim. There are currently five States Trump will lose outright (Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) because of policies; North Carolina & Georgia might join that group.

All in all, no matter how much momentum Mr. Trump has, there are factors which simply cannot change his luck. It is safe to conclude that the honeymoon is over.

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