Disclaimer: I am not related to any political campaign and/or party in any way, shape or form; I am not associated with any Super Pac I am not in contact with the candidates, their campaigns or their Super Pacs. Oh, I am not a supporter of any political party or candidate either. This article is simply an attempt to provide objective opinion about the candidates to help you filter through the noise produced by the chatters in the media.
The Republican nomination goes to Donald Trump; I am not kidding; I am not even joking. Ok, it’s the same thing. A few weeks ago, I started to feel extremely sad, simply because I started to concede I may never be able to figure out, ahead of everybody else, who is going to be the Republican nominee. Recall I promised to let you know before any “expert or psychic” could see what’s coming? Remember I’ve been bragging about my ability to peek into the future of presidential elections? Well, in case you did not know, here is the gist of it; for the past two decades, I’ve been accurately picking the winning president before any pundit could even spell p r e s i d e n t.
Well, I am keeping my promise again. For the 2016, I even threw in a bonus; in addition to picking who is going to succeed Obama in the Oval Office – it’s coming! It’s coming! – I am venturing picking the nominee for the major partys; I already picked the Democrat nominee; now, I declare unequivocally that Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. A few weeks ago, I was completely clueless who would become the nominee for the Republican Party, and if you pay attention to the experts, you wouldn’t be any better clued in either. As it is usually the case with each presidential election cycle, pundits (on both sides) tout their candidates as more likely to win.
More often than not, the nominee for each party is already decided in advance, much like a pre-arranged game (wrestling anyone); the nominee is usually the candidate who is able to raise more money. – in the beginning of this elections cycle, that would have been Jeb Bush on the Republican side and Hillary Clinton on the Democrat side – Take a stroll back to the 2000 presidential elections and ponder how in the world George W. Bush could knock John McCain out of the race. The answer is very simple; George was able to raise more money than McCain could. Translation, George had more “mudsling” power.
This time, it was shaping to become the same old and boring arrangement; Jeb Bush, before even announcing his candidacy, managed to raise more money than even the candidates who had already pledged to (or hinted at a) run for the office of the presidency. The “experts” began floating the idea of a Bush-Clinton duel – in the general elections – for the Oval Office. And the unexpected happened; Donald Trump declared his candidacy for the presidency of the United States.
Needless to rehash that the press was very dismissive of Trump’s candidacy, based solely on his personality. None of the “experts” took the time to look beyond Trump’s braggadocious personality and bombastic behavior. Even Huffington Post took a stand not to cover Trump’s political activities under the proper category. – I do wonder how the thinking process is being adjusted at Huffington Post in light of the possibility that Trump is not going away and will become the nominee – Oh boy do the experts dislike anomalies! How many times have I decried that journalists with ethics should not let personal emotions sift into the professional aspect of their jobs. Huffington Post dropped the ball on that aspect when it comes to Donald Trump.
Although Mr. Trump has been ranked top in every poll since the announcement of his candidacy, I had the hardest time calculating the odds for any of the candidates (including Trump) to clinch the nomination. I got lucky, Sarah Palin endorsed Donald Trump. I am not kidding. While the rest of the media piled up to attach all sorts of derogatory label to the Trump-Palin marriage, I saw another aspect of her endorsement. Despite having been ridiculed over the years – for being able to see Russia from her living room in Alaska; boy do I envy her view! – Sarah Palin is smart enough to pick the candidate with the best chances to win the Republican nomination. According to a 2011 article on Huffington Post, Sarah Palin was very successful with her endorsements spree, “More than three dozen of the Republicans she supported won seats in Congress to challenge President Barack Obama”; one of the beneficiaries was Ted Cruz.
But even if Sarah Palin were to be wrong this time, she provided me with some much needed “craziness jolt” to factor in my analysis; after all, it is not “your” regular presidential elections cycle. Thanks Sarah!
Joke aside, Donald Trump’s success thus far has been attributed by the “experts” – the same ones who keep calling for his “political demise” because of his outrageous comments; yep! those experts – to the overwhelming support from the blue collar workers (people who do manual labor compared to those who work in an office setting, the white collar workers). What those “experts” mean is that people without a college education are too dumb to understand what’s going on, that’s why they support Trump.
Without challenging those experts, let me simply say that the definition of the expression “blue collar workers” has expanded somewhat in this elections cycle to include those who are underemployed, unemployed and even some who are employed in an office setting but barely getting by (living paycheck to paycheck; there is nothing white collar about that). Granted that the majority of those “white collar workers” (with heavy blue stain) – probably in an effort to distinguish themselves from the non-college educated Trump’ supporters – have lined up behind Sanders but both the blue and the white collar workers mentioned above share the same financial struggle.
It should not thus surprise a political analyst that some Sanders’ supporters, if he does not clinch the Democrat nomination, would naturally migrate towards Trump. Besides, the “experts” seem to want to completely discard the blatant fact that Trump’ supporters (as well as Sanders’) are the same individuals who have grown tired of the establishment. Be it a Democrat or a Republican in the Oval Office, those frustrated individuals heard it all before; the candidates make promises they cannot, do not or would not keep. Trump (or Sanders) is an alternative to the status quo in Washington.
Furthermore, the “experts” have grossly underestimated Trump’s organization; it’s true that Mr. Trump is no politician; it’s probably true that he did not have a sophisticated “ground game plan” but Mr. Trump is a shrewd businessman and there are many elements of a business which are similar to running for public office. In addition, Mr. Trump has been gradually putting in place – in preparation for a “home run” perhaps – players he trusts but all the while keeping tight control of his campaign, much like he runs his successful businesses.
The “experts” have lived inside their “expertise box” for so long they fail to realize a lot has happened outside that box. Their knowledge, their data are long outdated and needed to be refreshed. Fortunately, I got rid of the box altogether a longtime ago, making it thus necessary for me to always use new data in my analysis. As such, I am better connected with reality and understand the in-depth change in the constituency. Everything else being equal, my non-allegiance to any political party renders it easiest for me to be most objective vis-à-vis the candidates irrespective of their party. In other words, I do not care who wins who loses.
Having said that, to anyone who is able to filter through Mr. Trump’s rambunctiousness, he is the only one of two candidates (the other being Bernie Sanders in the Democrat side) who has appealed to the constituents’ needs and likes. Coincidentally, that’s how one wins an election. Therefore, I re-affirm that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee for the 2016 elections.
However, I do not factor in my analysis that the Republican powerbrokers may resist going along with the popular votes result. Contrary to popular belief, Donald is not an egotistic individual; he is smart enough to exploit perception which is beneficial to him, however it may look to others. To stay at the top up to this point – in spite of his party turning its back on him, in spite of the media bashing him constantly, in spite of his opponents ganging up on him, in spite of the elite perception of him, in spite of the many in Washington who are working against him to prevent him from becoming the nominee – is nothing short of what one would call a miracle. Mr. Trump typifies a General of a small army with a very well-crafted strategy to defeat the enemy, and he succeeds . By any analysis, general Trump is winning the war.
Get ready for a showdown between Donald Trump representing the Republican Party and Hillary Clinton representing the Democrat Party. It is a duel you would not want to miss. Just recently, Mr. Trump made a wish, to face off Hillary Clinton in the general elections so “I can enjoy beating her” Trump said. Well, Mr. Trump got his wish. If the Republican establishment doesn’t interfere with the normal process of the elections, the faceoff will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Welcome to Las Vegas where dreams can indeed come true!
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